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Apr 29th, 2013: EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on April 29, 2013

5:40 pm EST:  I’m changing my thinking here after today SP-500 price action, the continued bearish sentiment and stepping back looking at the daily chart.  The most contrarian (i.e. painful for traders) SP-500 price action right now is higher either in a grinding consolidation then move up (primary) or continued relentless push up (alternate).

P2-C3 was a sharp Zig-Zag correction from 1422 to 1267 last Apr-June 2012.  The Elliott Wave “guideline of alternation” for corrective waves 2 and 4, says that P4-C3 should be a more shallow, grinding corrective wave like a triangle.   So I’m changing the primary count for P4-C3 to an ascending triangle that will remain range bound for a couple of months (May-June) between the recent P3-C3 high of 1597 and the major [A]-P4 low of 1536.   Today’s move back up to 1597 should conclude major [B]-P4 to form the flat top of the ascending triangle.   Note, that top of an ascending triangle does not have to be perfectly flat, so major [B] could extend about 10-12 pionts above 1597 is it so desires.  Next there will be a major [C]-P4 wave to test the 1553 pivot support, and then a major [D] wave back to 1597 and finally major [E]-P4 to 1576.  From there P5-C3 should move slow higher into the spring of 2014 and reach my 1697 to 1779 targets shown on the daily chart below.

Should the SP-500 continue to break-out significantly higher that 1597 in the coming days, then the alternate (blue) count would take over as the primary count.  This alternate (blue) count calls for major [5]-P3-C3 to extend up to either 1640 or 1667, where [5]=0.50[1] or 0.62[1] respectively.  Thus per this alternate (blue) count the P4-C3 correction (again likely a triangle) won’t occur until later this summer.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min EOD 4-29-13

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min EOD 4-29-13

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

SP-500 4-hr EOD 4-29-13

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

SP-500 daily EOD 4-29-13

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