April 16th, 2013: EOD Update
Posted by pugsma on April 16, 2013
5:30 pm EST: For the SP-500, Friday’s and Yesterday’s price action counts best as 3-waves down from 1597 to 1552. Today’ price action counts best as 5-wave up from 1552 to 1575. This leads to the possibility that 1597 is NOT the P3-C3 top (see the new alternate wave count) and there will be a May surprise (bullish).
For the primary count the 3-wave move down from 1597 to 1552 is major [A]-P4-C3. The current price action moving higher is the major [B]-wave, where the 5-wave move from 1552 to 1575 is minor A of major [B]. Next there should be pull-back for minor B of major [B] to about a 50% retrace target of 1564. From there, minor C of major [B] will complete between 1578 and 1587, depending on if C=0.62*A or C=A. After major [B]-P4 completes, there will be a large 100 point drop for major [C]-P4-C3 down to the 38% retrace target at 1482.
Even with the drop to 1552 yesterday, the SP-500 is still contained in its rising channel from November of 2013. The alternate (blue) count is that move up from 1540 to 1597 was only minor 1 of major [5]-P3-C3 and this drop to 1552 was a 78% retrace for minor 2. Today’s move from 1522 to 1575 was wave (1) of minor 3. And next there should be 50%/62% retrace to 1564 to 1561 for wave (2) of minor 3. Once wave (2) completes, the next move will be an aggressive wave (3) of minor 3 up toward a target in the 1622 area, where (3)=2.62*(1). The minor 3 target is 1644, where minor 3=1.62*minor 1. And the final target for minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C3 is at 1669, where major [5]=0.62*[1].
Note that the alternate (blue) count will become invalid as labeled with a move below yesterday’s low of 1552.36 and have final confirmation on a move below the major [4]-P3-C3 low of 1539.50.
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):
AAPL: The AAPL charts still show that price is trapped between 419 and 438. Since the proposed P4 low of 419.00 held yesterday (419.55 was hit), the primary count remains intact. The drop from 470 to 420 now completes minor 2 of major [1]-P5 with a double bottom at 419. The next wave up, minor 3 of major [1]-P5, should take AAPL above 500 in the couple of weeks.
If the 419.00 low is breached, then AAPL price is headed for at least 396, where C=A per the alternate (blue) count and likely 370, which in the head and shoulder projection to complete P4.
So watch the 437.99 and 419.0 levels the next few days. The next move above or below those levels should clarify the wave count.
AAPL 15-min chart (EOD):
AAPL 60-min chart (EOD):
GLD: GLD has either completed wave (4) of minor C of major [Y]-P4 today at 135.11 (23% retrace) or has more move push up to 38% retrace area of 139. In either case GLD should find the bottom of (5) of minor C of major [Y]-P4 near my 127-128 target, where C=1.23*A and [Y]=1.23*[W]. Three is a lower, measured move target for the 174-149 area break down at 123 if this 127-128 target does not hold.
GLD 15-min chart (EOD):
GLD 60-min chart (EOD):
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