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April 10th, 2013: Afternoon/EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on April 10, 2013

12:35 pm EST: One thing that is clear now after looking back on the mid-March to early April time frame is that major [4]-P3-C3 played out as an expanded flat (A-B-C, 3-3-5 wave move). Minor A was the single ZZ (a)-(b)-(c) move down from 1564 to 1538, minor B was double ZZ (w)-(x)-(y) move up from 1538 to 1574 and minor C was a quick (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5) drop from 1574 to 1540 to complete major [4]-P3-C3. This nearly 4-week long expanded flat for major [4]-P3-C3 frustrated bulls and bears alike. And once major [4] completed on Friday April 5th at 1540 with the positive $NYMO divergence set-up, the major [5]-P3-C3 wave began with an explosion upward breaking the all-time SP-500 high of 1576 today.

For the primary count minor 1 of major [5]-P3-C3 decided to extend today. The primary count is that minor 1 is ending here in the 1586 to 1592 area. There is a (5)=1.23*(1) target at 1586 and a (5)=1.62*(1) target at 1592. After minor 1 completes, there should be a minor 2 retrace to a minimum of 38% of 1568 basis 1586. And there are more typical minor 2 retrace targets are 1563 (50%) and 1557 (62%) basis 1586. After the minor 2 retrace, minor 3 should reach to about 1609 and ultimately minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C3 should reach at least the P3=P1 target of 1614.

For the alternate (blue) count major [5]-P3-C3 should end here shortly near 1590. There is a double bottom pattern for major [4]-P3-C3 at 1538 that measured to 1590 [1564 + (1564-1538)] = 1590 for the completion of major [5]-P3-C3.

For both the primary and alternate (blue) count, once P3-C3 completes there will be a significant 120 point (-8%), several month correction for P4-C3 down to the 1475 support area, which will be a 38% retrace of P3-C3.

SP-500 15-min chart (mid-day):

PUG SP-500 15-min after 4-10-13

SP-500 60-min chart (mid-day):

PUG SP-500 60-min after 4-10-13

SP-500 4-hr chart (mid-day):

PUG SP-500 4-hr after 4-10-13

SP-500 Daily chart (mid-day):

PUG SP-500 Daily EOD 4-10-13

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