March 21st, 2013: EOD Update
Posted by pugsma on March 21, 2013
4:20 pm EST: All count options discussed last night are still on the table since the 1538.58 low held today. However, the primary count flat for major [4]-P3-C3 targeting a move to 1519, where minor C=1.62*A is the highest probability with the close below the 13-day EMA of 1548. A variant of this would be major [4]-P3-C3 triangle where today’s move completed minor C at 1543 and now a move back to test 1461-64 is next for the minor D wave, before a minor E drop to 1550 to complete major [4]. A break below the minor A low of 1538.58 will invalidate this triangle option for major [4].
Finally the alternate (blue) count for major [3]-P3-C3 extending to 1580-590 is still alive (barely), since the DJIA came within 1 point of a violation today. The SP-500 wave ii-(5) of minor 5 of major [3] would have ended today at 1543.55 and a wave iii-(5) up above 1564 should be next. This count like the triangle becomes invalid on move below 1538.58.
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):
AAPL: Still watching for a break above the 50-day SMA (460) to confirm the wave count that the P4 low is in place at 419. Wave (2) of minor 3 of major [1]-P5 may have bottomed at 449 or might need one more push down to 445. In either case AAPL price needs to hold above the rising 13-day EMA (444) and break above 460 for confirmation.
AAPL 15-min chart (EOD):
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