PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC

Elliott Wave Technical Analysis and Commentary on the Stock Market

January 30th, 2013: EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on January 30, 2013

1-31-13 2:45 pm:  I wanted to show a chart of the McClellan Oscillator ($NYMO) vs the SP-500 going back to Nov 2011.  Notice that during the major [3] rally for Primary 1 of Cycle 3 (i.e. [3]-P1-C3) from Nov 2011 to April 2012, the $NYMO began to break-down below zero and continue to make lower, lows repeatedly breaking the lower Bollinger Band (BB) from about the mid-point of the rally in early February 2012.   This is precisely what is transpiring right now with the $NYMO.  So while some may worry about the $NYMO dropping now as the SP-500 continues to climb higher as being unusual, it fact it has happened within the last year as exact same point in a major [3] bull rally.

PUG $NYMO vs SP-500 Daily 1-31-13

6:20 pm EST:  Another new recovery high was made to at 1510.

The primary count is that wave i-(5) of minor 3 of major [3]-P3-C3 completed today at 1510.  The pull-back to 1500 was wave ii-(5), and now I’m looking for a wave iii-(5) move up to 1519, where iii=1.62*i.   Ultimately, wave v-(5) of minor 3 should end in the 1524 pivot range of 1517 to 1531.  There is a fib target at 1531, where minor 3 = 1.23*minor 1.  Note, that wave ii-(5) must hold the 1498.09 level for this primary count to remain valid.   A move below 1498.09 means that the alternate (blue) count is underway.

The alternate (blue) count short-term variant to the primary count is that wave (5) of minor 3 of major [3]-P3-C3 completed today at 1510.  The minimum triangle target was 1513, so this move from 1510 effectively satisfies that requirement.   This alternate (blue) count means that the minor 4 wave is underway with typical targets of 1484 (23% retrace of minor 3) to 1467 (38%) retrace.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 1-30-13

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 1-30-13

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