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January 18th, 2013: EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on January 18, 2013

6:20 pm EST:   Again the SP-500 made another new recovery high today at 1486.  There was a nice back-test of yesterday’s 1475 break-out and the SP-500 moved higher into close.  This is a good confirming event relative to this primary wave count.   The primary count is that wave iii-(3) of minor 3 of major [3]-P3-C3 is unfolding a slow grind upward headed for a 1498 target, where iii=1.62*i.  The wave (3) target is at 1520, the minor 3 target is at 1531 and the major [3] target is at 1551.  Thus, the SP-500 should continue grind higher under these low volatility continues (i.e. VIX below 15) into the March to April time frame.

I have added an alternate (blue) variant tonight because I can count 5 very small sub-minuette waves up from the wave (2) low of 1452 to today’s 1486 high.   Thus, this could be the end of wave i-(3) and next week we’ll see a wave ii-(3) retrace of 50% to 62% to the 1469 to 1465 area before the wave iii-(3) move much higher.   If the 1475 break-out fails early next week, then this would become the primary count.

Reminder:  Monday Jan 21st is the MLK Holiday in the US.  All US equity markets are closed on Monday.  The next blog update will be on Tuesday Jan 22nd.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min EOD 1-18-13

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min EOD 1-18-13

GLD:  GLD is still struggling here in the primary count in try to reach the wave iii=1.62*i target of 165.80 an break the out of the 3 month-long down channel.   thus, there still remains a possibility of a new low for majro [2]-P5 below 158.38 in the 155-156 area per the alternate (blue) count.

GLD 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG GLD 60-min EOD 1-18-13

AAPL:  For the primary wave count, AAPL looks to have completed wave (2) of minor 1 of major [1]-P5 today at the 50% retrace level of 496.  The next move should be a wave (3) up to a target of 541, where (3)=1.62(1).   However on a break below the 483 low, the alternate (blue) count is underway which will likely see wave (c) of minor 5 of major [C]-P4 extended to the 467 target where (c)=1.62(a).  There is the weekly chart long-term, rising trend-line support in the 460-470 area.

AAPL 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG AAPL 15-min EOD 1-18-13

AAPL 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG AAPL 60-min EOD 1-18-13

AAPL daily chart (EOD):

PUG AAPL daily EOD 1-18-13

AAPL weekly chart (EOD):

PUG AAPL weekly EOD 1-18-13

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