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October 25th, 2012: Update 1 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on October 25, 2012

5:35 pm EST:  Today’s low fo 1405 looks better as a potential major [4]-P3-C3 bottom from both a wave count and daily bottoming indicator perspective (i.e. $NYMO and VIX).   The $NYMO put in a confirmed positive divergence with respect to the SPX price lows between Oct 10th and today Oct 25th.   The VIX also close back inside its upper BB, completing the 2nd step of the VIX Sell, SPX Buy signal.  A lower VIX close than 18.12 tomorrow will confirm the VIX sell, SPX buy signal.

The alternate (blue) count is that wave i and ii of (5) of minor C of major [4]-P3-C3 completed today at 1405 and 1414 respectively.  I’m expecting a drop tomorrow for waves iii-iv-v of (5) to the 1386 to 1397 area.   There is a C=1.62*target at 1391 and wave 4 of lesser degree target at 1397.

Support is at 1397 then the 1386 pivot.  Resistance is at the 1422-1427 band then the 1440 pivot.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):


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