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October 22nd, 2012: Update 1 – Afternoon/EOD

Posted by pugsma on October 22, 2012

5:45 pm EST:  Here is the updated 15-min chart.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

2:20 pm EST:  With the fresh low below 1426, the primary count is eliminated and the alternate count is confirmed.  There are now a couple variants of the alternate count to consider, the first will become the new primary and the 2nd will become the alternate count.

The primary count is a simple large Zig-Zag major [4]-P3-C3 wave or bull flag off the 1475 high.  The minor A wave was the drop from 1475 to 1430, the minor B wave was the rise to 1471, drop to 1426 and rise to 1464, and the SPX is now completing the minor C drop from 1464 to a target of 1419, where C=A.  Today’s low of 1422 could very well of ended major [4]-P3-C3 within the 1422-1427 support band that I have been indicating for the past month.

The alternate (blue) count is a complex triple Zig-Zag major [4]-P3-C3 wave off the 1475 high.  This triple ZZ is in its final ZZ down from 1464 to a target area of 1409 (Z=1.23*Y) to 1391  Z=1.62*Y).   The move down to 1422 today was wave (a) of minor Z of major [4].   Next there should be a (b) wave move up to about a 50% retrace to 1443 (near the 1440 pivot) and then another 42 point drop down towards 1401 to complete major [4]-P3-C3.

For both of these count the limit of major [4]-P3-C3 is the major [1]-P3-C3 high of 1380.

SP-500 60-min chart (2:10 pm EST):

SP-500 4-hr chart (2:10 pm EST):

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