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September 25th, 2012: Update 1 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on September 25, 2012

6:00 pm EST:  With the SP-500 drop below 1450 today, the primary count of the double ZZ won out over the alternate (blue) count triangle.  Pretty much as I had been forecasting the past week that the 1440 pivot would get tested per the primary count double ZZ for major [4] wave.   Though I have to admit the alternate (blue) count triangle sure looked good right up until the late day sell-off.  Quite a tricky little move higher to 1463 early to complete the (b) of minor Y of major [4]-P3-C3 wave that also looked good as minor D of major [4] triangle wave.

For the primary count the wave (b) of minor Y of major [4]-P3-C3 complete at 1463 early today.  The drop to 1442 for wave (c) of minor, is following the wave (c)=1.62*(a) extension which has a 1439 target.  So there might be a little more down movement to go.  However the minor Y=W target is 1442 and the 23% retrace of major [3] target for major [4] is at 1441.  So by those targets major [4] wave could have ended at the close 1442 today.  Another indicator that major [4] could be over or soon be over is the McClellan Oscillator ($NYMO) closed very close to its lower BB today at -37.

For a new alternate (blue) count, we must consider the minor Y=1.62*W extersion down 1427 to complete major [4] at the previous high support band of 1422-1427.  Also note that the 38% retrace of major [3] is at 1420.   Finally that for major [4] to remain valid it must only hold above the major [1] high of 1380 and a major [4] likes to retrace to the wave 4 of previous degree, which is minor 4 of major [3] at 1397.  So there is room for major [4] to drop even lower that 1422-1427 if required and 1397 would be the next lower target area.

Support is at the 1440 pivot and the previous high region of 1422-1427.  Resistance is the 1475 recent high.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

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