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September 11th, 2012: Update 1 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on September 11, 2012

7:15 pm EST:  Even with the DJIA making a new 2012 and 4 year recovery high today at 13,354 the SPX did not move above yesterday’s 1439 high.  So it’s possible the wave (2) is playing out as a flat and today’s action was a b-(2) wave of minor 3 of major [3]-P3-C3 of the primary count.  However, there is a variant of this primary count where the drop to 1429 yesterday was a wave iv-(1) and now there will be a wave v-(1) new high at 1441, where v=i or 1449, where v=1.62*i before the wave (2) begins.   In either case the wave (2) pull-back is in progress or very near and is likely  headed for a target support area of 1419 to 1424, which is 38% to 50% retrace of wave (1).   The wave (2) pull-back must remain above the minor 2 low of 1396 in order for the primary count to remain valid.

The alternate (blue) count is unchanged as we are looking for the top of minor Y of major [B]-P2-C3 for the larger irregular flat that must end below the maximum of 1459.  Note that it will take a significant break of the 1396 level to move this alternate (blue) count from a remote probability to something more likely to unfold headed for a 1281 target for major [C]-P2-C3.

Support is at the old high of 1422-27 and the resistance is at the 1440 pivot area (1440 +/- 7).

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

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