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August 23rd, 2012: Update 1 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on August 23, 2012

4:55pm EST:  Again things went just as forecast today for the primary count.  The wave (b) of minor 2 of major [3]-P3-C3 high was indeed at 1416 late yesterday.  And now wave (c) of minor 2 is underway with the first target at the (c)=(a) level of 1396.   There is also a good target at 1384 where (c)=1.62*(a).  There is lower blue channel support around 1390-94 over the next couple of trading days as well.  The 38% retrace of minor 1 target is 1390, the 50% retrace target is 1378 and the 62% retrace is at 1366.  The 1366, retrace of 62% would be very typical of a minor 2 wave that is intent on causing confusion and doubt for the bulls and one which will serve to embolden the bears.   The 1355 August 2nd level is an important level for minor 2 to hold above and the ultimate level for wave minor 2 is the major [2] low of 1329.

The alternate (blue) count is a (1)-(2) start to minor 1 of major [C]-P2-C3 and will likely need to see swift move down to a wave (3) target of 1364, where (3)=2.62*(1) in order to gain some real momentum.  But it’s a break of the Aug 2nd low at 1355 that is the key first time and goal of the minor 1 wave.

The next key pivot support is a 1386 and a good test of this 1386 pivot is need for the primary count.   Conversely a break of the 1386, 1372 and 1363 pivots is need for the alternate (blue) count.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

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