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August 16th, 2012: Update 1 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on August 16, 2012

5:40 pm EST:  Here is the SPX daily chart showing how during a major [3]-P3 wave up, the price tends to hold above the rising 13-day EMA (current at 1397).  Buying the dips to the 13-day EMA was a great approach during major [3]-P1-C3 up from mid-Dec 2011 to late Feb 2012.

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):

5:05 pm EST:  Today was a bit of a surprise to the upside, as often occurs during a major [3]-P3 wave up.  We did have a potential wave (4) of minor 1 rectangle target of 1418 for wave (5) of minor 1 hit today.   However, so far I only count 3 minuette waves i-ii-iii up for wave (5).  Thus, I think wave (5) of minor could extend to the 1423 to 1434 area.  The wave iii-(5) target is 1421 where iii=1.62*i and the wave iv-(4) retrace must hold  the wave i-(5) high of 1410 before wave v-(5) completes in the 1423 to 1434 area, where v=i.  After minor 1 completes between 1418 and 1428 (estimate), I have a the 23% retrace target for minor 2 at 1397/1405 basis 1418/1428 and the 38% retrace target at 1384/1390.   I think minor 2 will likely be a shallow retrace that holds bove the rising 13-day EMA (1397) or at worst the 34-day EMA (1376) sometime next week.   The maximum retrace for minor 2 is coarse way down at 1329.  However, realistically minor 2 should hold the 1363 pivot support or 1355.

For the alternate (blue) count the major [B]-P2-C3 target was 1418 where C=1.62*A for the 2nd Zig-Zag up as seen on the 60-min chart.  So it’s now put up or shut time for this alternate (blue) count.  It’s time for the SPX to start dropping and break the 1355 support during minor 1 of major [C]-P2-C3 down if this alternate blue (count) has any legs.   A failure to break below 1355 means the primary count is correct.  The absolute maximum for major [B]-P2-C3 is at 1458, where [B]=1.23*[A], but I really don’t think this count can survive  much above above the [B]=[A] of 1422.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

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