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August 1st, 2012: Update 1 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on August 1, 2012

5:55 pm EST: After looking at the charts and indicators after the close, I believe for the primary count that minor 1 of major [3]-P3-C3 ended at 1392 on Monday July 30th and the SPX has been in a bull flag consolidation for minor 2 since then.  Minor 2 could very well have ended today at 1373.  However, there are lower fib retrace targets are 1368 (38%), 1361 (50%) and 1353 (62%).    The 50%/62% retrace target are the most typical of a wave 2.  Once minor 2 is complete, the minor 3 target is 1463, bases a minor 2 low of 1361.

For the intermediate term very bearish alternate (blue) count this means that major [B]-P2-C2 also ended on 1392 on Monday July 30th and the SPX is set to fall some 130+ points to the 1257 pivot are for major [C]-P2-C3.  A break below the lower 1363 pivot support area of (1356) is required to gain this alternate (blue) some momentum.  A a break of the major [2] low of 1329 is required in order to eliminate the primary count and confirm alternate (blue) count.

The next few days to a week are critical in terms of separating the two very difference counts presented.  The 1363 pivot support like is the key area to watch.  The rising 13-day EMA is at 1365 and the rising 34-day EMA is at 1354.  This minor 2 wave should hold above those levels.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

 

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