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July 25th, 2012: Update 1 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on July 25, 2012

7:00 pm EST:  Today’s weak recovery price action offers no clarity in the counts.  Although the bias appears up for at least one more day by all count variants.

The primary count is that major [2]-P3-C3 bottomed yesterday at 1329.  In which case today’s price action looks like a wave i-ii of (1) of minor 1 of major [3]-P3-C3 headed upward with a wave iii-(1) target near the 1363 pivot.  It will take a break above the 1363 pivot for wave (1) of minor to help validate this bullish across all time frames count.  The primary count variant that is near-term bearish, but intermediate and longer term bullish is that the drop to 1329 yesterday only competed minor A of major [2]-P3-C3.  Thus, this bounce today looks like wave (a)-(b) of minor B with a wave (c) of minor B up towards the 50%/62% retrace area of 1355/1361 area underway.  From there, a minor C of major [2]-P3-C3 wave will drop back down to the 1315 pivot area by early next week.

The alternate (blue) count is near-term and intermediate term very bearish.  It is that 1329 ended minor 1 of major [C]-P2-C3 wave down.   Today’s move up looks like wave (a)-(b) of minor 2 with wave (c) up get to come to the 50%/62% retrace 1355/1361 target area.  From there minor 3 of major [C]-P2-C3 should drop at least  83 points (i.e M3=1.62*M1) to the 1272 to 1278 area.  Ultimately I think major [C]-P2-C3 will test the 1257 pivot or the 50% retrace of P1-C3 at 1249.

Basically above the 1315 pivot area, the rising 200-day SMA (1316) and the lower light blue up channel line the primary count and it’s near-term bearish variant are in-play.  Any break below the 1315 pivot is a warning sign that the alternate (blue) count headed for 1257 to 1249 is in-play.

SP-500 15-min (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

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