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July 20th, 2012: Update 1 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on July 20, 2012

4:55 pm EST:  July OPEX ended today with the SPY, QQQ and IWM coming very close to hitting their respective Current Pain targets of 136.0, 64.0 and 79.0.

Primary count is that wave i-(3) of minor 3 of major [3]-P3-C3 complete at 1380 yesterday and that today we saw a wave ii-(3) drop towards the 50% retrace fo 1363.    Wave ii-(3) could be over or might need to reach the 62% retrace at 1358 on Monday.  Once wave ii-(3) complete the wave iii-(3) target is at 1415, where iii=1.62*i.  The limit of the wave ii-(3) retrace is the wave (2) low of 1345.07.  Below 1345.07 the alternate (blue) count modification to the primary is in-play.

The alternate (blue) count is that major[1]-P3-C3 completed as an LD at 1380 yesterday.  The current move down is minor A of major [2] with a target near 1335-39.  Ultimately major [2] should reach a 50%, 62% or 78% retrace of major [1], with targets at 1329, 1314 and 1294.  Once major [2] completes, this alternate (blue) count will be identical to the primary count in that major [3]-P3-C3 will headed for the 1500+ area as seen on the 4-hr chart.

Support is at the 1363 pivot and resistance is at the 1372 and 1386 pivots.

Have a Great Weekend!

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

 

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

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