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July 3rd, 2012: Update 1 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on July 3, 2012

1:40 pm EST:  Today went precisely as forecast.   The SPX moved higher into the 1379 target range for the primary wave count (3) of minor 3 of major [1]-P3-C3.   The day ended with the SPX and $NYMO outside of their upper Bolinger Band (BB).  Thus, a wave (4) of minor 3 pull-back consolidation is likely here.  The targets for wave (4) are at the 23% retrace of 1361 and the 38% retrace of 1351.  The wave 4 of previous degree is wave iv-(3) at 1356 and is another likely target for wave (4).  This wave (4) pull-back must remain above the wave (1) high of 1334 for the primary count to remain valid.  After the wave (4) pull-back, I’m expecting wave (5) of minor to reach the 1405 target area.

For the alternate (blue) count the minor C of major [B]-P2-C3 wave satisfied its initial target are of 1369 to 1372, where C=0.62*A.    However there is still a higher C=A target at 1405.  We’ll need to see a break-down below 1334 to consider that major [B] has ened and has begun the major [C]-P2-C3 push down to a new low below 1267.

Support is at the 1363 pivot area and resistance is now the 1372 and 1386 pivot area.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

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