June 22nd, 2012: Update 1 – EOD
Posted by pugsma on June 22, 2012
4:35 pm EST: Today price action did not produce follow-thru to yesterday’s low of 1324.41. Thus, there is no 5-wave move down (only 3-waves down) from the 1363.42 high. Also the SP-500 price closed back above the 34-day EMA of 1334.02 at 1335.02 and VIX closed solidly red down -9.81% invalidating the VIX Buy, SPX Sell signal triggered on Wednesday. All of these items put the primary count in some doubt and give legs to the alternate (blue) count. The bears will need to produce a new low below 1224.41 before a the bulls can break above 1346.45 in order to confirm the primary count over the alternate (blue) count. One item in the bears favor going into Monday is that the 4-hr MACD did confirm a bear cross at 4 pm today.
The primary count is that wave (3) of minor 1 of major [C]-P2-C3 complete at 1324.41 yesterday and today’s move up to 1337.82 completed wave (4) at the 38% retrace of wave (3). Then next move should be a 17 point drop from 1338 to 1321 to complete wave (5) where (5)=(1). A possible extension of wave (5) would be a the (5)=1.62*(1) target of 1310. A break of above the wave (1) low of 1346.45 before a move below 1324.41 will invalidate this primary count.
The alternate (blue) count is that wave (2) of minor 3 of major [1]-P3-C3 completed at 1324.41 yesterday and wave (3) of minor up has begun. The first target for minor 3 is at 1383, where M3=1.23*M1 and the next target is at 1407 where M3=1.62*M1. Note: the alternate (blue) count will become invalid on a new low be the minor 2 of 1306.62.
Have a great weekend.
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):
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