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June 21st, 2012: Update 1 – Afternoon/EOD

Posted by pugsma on June 21, 2012

5:10 pm EST:  Here are the updated 15-min, 60-min and 4-hr charts after the close.

Primary count is that major [B]-P2-C3 ended 1363 and major [C]-P2-C3 has begun headed for the 1249 (50% retrace of P1) to 1207 targets (62% retrace of P1).  I’m looking for minor 1 of major [C] to reach the 1303 to 1315 pivot area.  After this minor 1 wave completes I’d expect a minor to 2 bounce of about 50% to the 1335 to 1345 area.

The alternate (blue) count is still valid as a minor 1-2, minute (1)-(2) count as long as the minor 2 low of 1307 holds.  The minor 3 target area remains at 1383 to 1407, where minor 3 = minor 1 * 1.23 or  1.62 minor 1.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

3:10 pm EST:  Just wanted to add the updated 60-min chart before the close and point out that the very bullish alternate (blue) count is not dead here even with the big sell-off today.  This could be a minor 1-2, minute (1)-(2) beginning to minor 3 headed for 1407, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1.  The typical minute (2) retrace of 62% to 1328 was tagged today, so minute (3) up could be underway now.  There is also a chance for wave (2) drop to the 78% retrace of 1319 that would hold the key 1315 pivot and touch the lower blue upward channel line.  A break below the minor 2 low of 1307 would invalidate this alternate (blue) count and further confirm the primary count that major [B]-P2-C3 ended at 1363 and that major [C]-P2-C3 headed for 1249 to 1207 is underway.

SP-500 60-mi chart (3:03 pm):

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