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June 15th, 2012: Update 1 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on June 15, 2012

5:15 pm EST:    With the break above 1336, the bullish near-term adjustments I’ve been hinting to for both the primary and alternate (blue) counts are as follows:

Primary count is that minor B of major [B]-P2-C3 ended as an expanded flat at 1307 on Tuesday and since then minor C up has been underway.   Minor A ended at 1329 and measured 62 points.  The targets for the end of Minor C are at C=0.62*A => 1345 and at C=A => 1369.   Today’s high reached 1343, so the first target is close at handed.   For this primary count I have wave (3) of minor C ending between 1345 and 1351 and then a wave (4) to pull-back and test the 1335 area before (5) completes between 1345 and 1369.   Note any break below the wave (1) high of 1326.85 would end this minor B wave up and signal the beginning of minor C down.  The 50-day SMA sits at 1349 and the upper BB is at 1346, so there is a good chance the minor C move is complete or  will complete in the next few days.  The SPX price back-testing the 50-day SMA after first testing the 13-day EMA and failing, then the 34-day EMA and failing is precisely the same pattern that played out in September 2011 before the final low was put in during early October.  I’m expecting the same thing here with major [C]-P2-C3 making a new low in July at 1249 (50% retrace of P1-C3) or 1207 (62% retrace of P1-C3).

The alternate (blue) count is that minor 2 of major [1]-P1-C3 ended at 1307 as an expanded flat and since then minor 3 up has been underway.  The first target for minor 3 is at 1383, here minor 3 = 1.23*minor 1.  For this alternate (blue) count I think we are in the very early stages (i.e. waves i-ii) of wave (3) of minor 3 and the wave iii-(3) of minor 3 explosion higher near.  There is also a higher target for minor 3 at 1408, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1.  Since the IHS neckline at 1335 was broken through today and the IHS target is at 1403 for the completion of major [1]-P1-C3.   But if minor 3 extends to 1408, then major [1] could reach the 1422 high.  After major [1] complete, I’m expecting a deep retrace for major [2] to retrace to at least the ISH neckline of 1335 or even the 1315 pivot area.

Support is at the 1315 pivot and resistance at 50-day SMA of 1349 and then the 1363 pivot.

Have a great Father’s Day Weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

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