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June 7th, 2012: Update 1 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on June 7, 2012

5:05 pm EST:   Today the minor A or 1 wave up decided to extend past the (5)=(1) target of 1319 to the (5)=(1) target of 1329.   However, the forecast that a the minor B or 2 wave down is next is unchanged.

The primary count is minor A of major [B]-P2-C3 completed today at 1329 and the minor B pull-back began.    The question now becomes is the minor B pull-back will complete at 1313/1305 or not?  The 23% retrace of minor A is at 1315 and the 38% retrace is at 1305.   The initial drop to 1318 is either i-(a) or all of (a), which was followed by a rise to 1326 for either ii-(a) or all of (b) and finally a drop 1313 for either iii-(a) or all of (c).  I tend to think the move today was just waves i-ii of (a) of minor B and thus there is more downside ahead to complete (a) and finally (c) of minor B near the 50% to 62% retrace targets of 1298 to 1291.  The 15-min MACD being on sell supports this view along with the 60-min MACD hitting over-bought and starting to roll-over.   But I’ll let the wave action tomorrow tells us which view is correct.

The alternate (blue) count is identical to the primary count as this stage, expect the move down is minor 2 of major [1]-P3-C3.

Support is at the 1303 and 1291 pivots.  Resistance at the 1315 pivot and then the 1330 to 1335 area.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

 SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

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