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May 23rd, 2012: Update 2 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on May 23, 2012

4:15 pm EST: Price action of the final hour off the 1296 low today makes a small change to the primary necessary.  It’s now more likely that Friday’s low of 1292 was the low of P2-C3 per the primary count and there will not be a new below 1292 in the 1292 to 1284 area.  The move today to 1296 was a deep wave (2) retrace of the wave (1) advance to 1328 yesterday.  I have a target for wave (3) of minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3 at 1354, where (3)=1.62*(1).  And I’d expect minor 1 to reach the 1363 to 1272 pivot area before we see a significant minor 2 retrace.  We can also now calculate the P3-C3 target as P1-C3*1.62 =>1854, with a low end target of 1639, where P3-C3 = P1-C3.  These price targets P3-C3 will take about 2 years to be reached.

For the 1st and 2nd alternate counts, the 1296 low today was wave (b) of minor 4 of major [A]-P2-C3 and major [1]-PC-C2, respectively.  I’m now expecting a (c) wave move to 1333 where (c)=(a) to buy more time for this minor 4 wave to complete.   There is also a (c)=1.62*(a) target at 1354.   Also, minor 4 could turn into a contracting triangle between 1292 and 1328 in order to buy more time as well.  In this case the (c) wave up just began this afternoon headed for about 1320, with a (d) down and (e) to follow to complete minor 4.   The minor 5 target remains near 1274, where minor 5=1 to complete [A]-P2-C3 (blue) or [1]-PC-C2 (red).  From the 1274 area the there be an aggressive move up to 1340-50 for wave [B] or [2], followed by a large drop down to 1207 (blue) to 950-1000 (red).

The primary vs 1st/2nd alt counts will now need be separated based the SPX price reaction at key moving average resistance above in the 1333 and 1355 area.

Support is at the 1315 pivot and then the 1303 and 1291 pivots.  Resistance is at the falling 13-day EMA of 1333 and the falling 34-day EMA of 1355.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

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