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May 21st, 2012: Update 1 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on May 21, 2012

5:25 pm EST:  Today’s rally went as predicted on Friday EOD.  For the primary count I had a minor 4 of major [C]-P2-C3 target of 1320 at the 38% retrace level.   The SPX rallied to 1316.39.

Primary count is that minor 4 of major [4]-P2-C3 is underway.  The 5-wave move from 1292 to 1312 looks like (a) of minor 4.  The 3-wave move from 1312 to 1039 looks like (b) of minor 4.  And now we have 5-wave move to complete (c) of minor at targets of 1320, where (c)=0.62*(a) or 1328, where (c)=(a).  The 38% retrace is at 1302 and the 50% retrace is at 1329, so these fit with the minor 4 wave targets.   A move above 1329 means that 1292 was more than likely the end of P2-C3 and move above the minor 1 low of 1343 will confirm it.  Assuming minor 4 ends at 1320, I have targets of 1275 to 1284 for the completion of minor 5 of major [C]-P2-C3.    The 38% retrace of P1-C3 is at 1290 and the rising 200-day SMA is at 1279.

The alternate (blue) count remains the same, in that this move lower is only major [A]-P2-C3.  The drop to 1292 on Friday completed minor 3 of major [A] and now we have a minor 4 move higher currently underway with a target of 1339 or a 38% retrace.   Note: that minor 4 must remain below the minor 1 low f 1357 to remain valid (above 1357 we could have a 3-3-5, A-B-C flat for P2-C3 scenario with minor A at 1292, minor B headed for 1422 and a minor C drop back to 1292).  The final target area for major [A]-P2-C3 is in the 1257 to 1278 range. From this low, there will be a major [B]-P2-C3 bounce up to the 1340 to 1350 area.   The ultimate target for P2-C3 is at 1207 or a 62% retrace of P1-C3.

Support is at the 1303 and 1291 pivots.  Resistance is at 1315 pivot range (which is up to 1322).

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

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