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May 18th, 2012: Update – EOD

Posted by pugsma on May 18, 2012

6:35 pm EST:  Here is the updated 60-min chart.

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

6:05 pm EST: Here is the updated 4-hr chart.

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

5:20 pm EST:   With the move below 1292.66 today, the Primary 1 of Cycle 3 (P1-C3) top at 1422 from early April has been confirmed.  This means that P2-C3 has been underway since the 1422 high.  There are two good scenarios to consider for C2-P3 as seen on the updated daily chart below.  First the primary count is that P2-C3 is playing out as an [A]-[B]-[C] move with the April low of 1357 as major [A], the move to 1415 as major [B] and now a final major [C] drop to the 38% retrace target of 1290.  This primary count means that the P2-C3 low is very near (like witin days to a couple week).  The lower in the range for this count would be the 200-day SMA at 1278.  The alternate (blue) is that the current move down is only major [A] of P2-C3 and this wave we are in now is minor 3 of major [A].  The target for the end of this major [A] wave is between 1250 and 1290.  After major [A] completes there will be about 50% retrace to the 1330 to 1360 area and then major [C] of P2-C3 down to the 1207 target for a 62% retrace of P1-C3.  This alternate (blue) P2-C3 low will occur late this summer into early fall.

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):

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