May 18th, 2012: Update – EOD
Posted by pugsma on May 18, 2012
6:35 pm EST: Here is the updated 60-min chart.
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):
6:05 pm EST: Here is the updated 4-hr chart.
SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):
5:20 pm EST: With the move below 1292.66 today, the Primary 1 of Cycle 3 (P1-C3) top at 1422 from early April has been confirmed. This means that P2-C3 has been underway since the 1422 high. There are two good scenarios to consider for C2-P3 as seen on the updated daily chart below. First the primary count is that P2-C3 is playing out as an [A]-[B]-[C] move with the April low of 1357 as major [A], the move to 1415 as major [B] and now a final major [C] drop to the 38% retrace target of 1290. This primary count means that the P2-C3 low is very near (like witin days to a couple week). The lower in the range for this count would be the 200-day SMA at 1278. The alternate (blue) is that the current move down is only major [A] of P2-C3 and this wave we are in now is minor 3 of major [A]. The target for the end of this major [A] wave is between 1250 and 1290. After major [A] completes there will be about 50% retrace to the 1330 to 1360 area and then major [C] of P2-C3 down to the 1207 target for a 62% retrace of P1-C3. This alternate (blue) P2-C3 low will occur late this summer into early fall.
SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):
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