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May 17th, 2012: Update 1 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on May 17, 2012

5:15 pm EST:  Primary count remains that the completion of [4]-P1-C3 will hold above the major [1]-P1-C3 high of 1293.    Today waves iii-(5) and iv-(5) of minor C were put in at 1311 and 1319, respectively.   Wave v-(5) down began late today and has a target at 1300, where v=i.  Also, there is a green head and shoulders pattern with neckline at 1360 that measures to 1298.  From the major [4] low, major [5]-P1-C3 should make a new high above 1422 in the 1433 to 1516 target range.  Also note the parallel [1]-[3] and [2]-[4] channel on the 4-hour chart supports the 1298-1302 major [4] low.

The alternate (red) count also continues to look good and the SPX price is hitting its targets on the money.  The red count target for wave iii-(3) of minor 3 of major [C]-P2-C3 was 1311 for today and bingo, the SPX price nailed it.  There was wave iv-(3) bounce to 1319 and now wave v-(3) is headed for the 1298 target, where (3)=1.62*(1).   From 1298, I’d expect wave (4) to bounce to about 1317 for a 38% retrace.  Then wave (5) of minor 3 will head below 1298 towards 1258.  Ultimately P2-C3 is head for either the 50% retrace target of 1249 or the 62% retrace target of 1207.

I have new alternate (blue) count variant of the alternate (red) count.   The blue count has minor 3 of major [C]-P2-C3 ending at 1298 and then a minor bounce higher to 1323 to 1332, or a 38% to 50% retrace.  And finally minor 5 of major [C]-P2-C3 should complete near a 1290 or a 38% retrace of P1-C3.  There is also the 200-day SMA in the area of 1278 that would fit with this count.

Support is at the 1303 pivot and then the 1291 pivot.  Resistance is at the 1315 pivot.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

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