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May 14th, 2012: Update 1 – Mid-day/EOD

Posted by pugsma on May 14, 2012

5:00 pm EST:  Nothing new to report after the close.  Still many possible short-term scenario’s for both the primary and alternate (red) counts as shown on the update 15-min chart.  Need to see a few more waves to get a clear picture.

Next support is at the 1315 pivot and then the 1303 pivot.  Resistance is at the 1363 pivot.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

11:45 am EST: As suspected and indicated on Friday EOD, my money was on the blue count scenario (now the primary count) for a lower low below 1343.  So far we have seen 1337 today, which is near the first target of 1335, where C=1.23*A.   There are still lower potential targets of 1318 and 1310, where C=1.50*A and C=1.62*A.   Major [4]-P1-C3 should be finished or nearly finished as per the primary count and now a rally to 1472 to 1555 for major [5]-P1-C3 should begin that last into late summer to early fall.  The 1386 pivot must be cleared and close above for several days to confirm this count.

For the alternate (red) count, minor 1 of major [C]-P2-C3 should be ending here near 1337 and a dead cat bounce to 1366 (38% retrace) to 1385 (62% retrace) for minor 2 should be underway.  This corresponds nicely with the rapidly falling daily moving average cluster of 13-day EMA (1368), 34-day EMA (1376) and 50-day SMA (1385).  This falling daily moving average cluster should cap all rally attempts.  The minor 3 target is now 1259, where minor 3 = 1.62* minor 1.  And the final target for P2-C3 is 1249 (50% retrace of P1-C3) to 1207 (62% retrace of P1-C3).

SP-500 60-min chart (11:34 am):

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