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May 2nd, 2012: Update 2 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on May 2, 2012

4:55 pm EST:  There have been a lot cross-currents in the equity markets the past two days.  We are toggling here between the primary and 1st alternate (blue) counts that both forecast a higher high above 1422 is ahead.    I still favor the primary count headed to 1475-1504 for the peak of P1-C3 over the next several weeks into late May to mid-June, but a quick burst to a P1-C3 top at 1428 over the next day or two would not surprise me per the 1st alternate (blue) count.

For the primary count, minor 1 of major [5]-P1-C3 counts as complete at 1415.   A minor 2 correction is currently underway that should hold the 1386 pivot support area. (i.e. 1379 to 1393) and the lower light blue channel line.   The initial drop from 1415 to 1393.92 can be viewed as wave (a) of minor 2 and now a (b) bounce to 50% retrace of 1404 looks to have completed late today.  The targets for wave (c) of minor 2 are the 50% retrace target of 1387 and the 62% retrace target of 1380. Once minor 2 is complete, then the new minor 3 target is 1471, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1.  And the major [5]-P1-C3 target area is 1475 to 1504 (as seen on the 60-min chart).

For the alternate (blue) count I’m looking at this mornings drop to 1394, as yet another back-test of the 1392 IHS neck-line as the completion of an irregular flat for minor 4 of major [5]-P1-C3.   I’m still looking for major [5]-P1-C3 to top out between 1422 and 1428 at the IHS target area in relative short order of a day or two.

The 2nd alternate (red) count will gain some momentum only on a break of the 1386 pivot area.

Support is at the 1386 pivot and resistance at the recent 1422 high.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 4hr-chart (EOD):

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