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April 30th, 2012: Update 1 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on April 30, 2012

4:50 pm EST:  The SP-500 pulled-back to 1394.00 today, as expected by the primary count.  The SP-500 is poised to make a new higher, high above 1422.38, as long as the key support at 1383-1388 holds.

The primary count is that minor 2 of major [5]-P1-C3 is underway with a target of 1383 (50% retrace) to 1388 (38% retrace).  Today’s initial move to 1395.21 was wave (a) and the rest of the day was a wave (b) and now there should be another 10 to 12 point drop in wave (c) to the 1383 to 1388 area.   It is however possible that the entire (a)-(b)-(c) minor correction ended at 1394.00.  The 15-min MAC went confirmed bull-cross EOD, supporting the view that minor 2 might be over.  Once minor 2 is complete minor 3 should launch towards the 1440 pivot with a first target area of 1459, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1.   I’m looking for major [5]-P1-C3 to push towards the upper end of the 1441 to 1504 range, per this primary count.

The alternate (blue) count is that the drop to 1394.00 today was minor 4 of major [5]-P1-C3.   This minor 4 wave was a perfect back test of the 1392 IHS neckline.  Then next move should be a minor 5 wave towards the IHS target of 1428 to complete major [5]-P1-C3 later this week.

The 2nd alternate (red) count has the minor B wave major [C]-P2-C3 complete at 1406 from Friday.  The minor C wave is underway that will be 100+ drop to the 1303 pivot area to complete major [A].   A decisive break of the 1383 support on large volume is need to confirm this bearish count.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

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