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April 27th, 2012: Update 1 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on April 27, 2012

5:50 pm EST:   There was a little more juice left in the market on this Friday and the major indices all closed higher.  The DJIA very nearly made a new recovery high and is leading this bull charge.  I’d the expect the SP-500, Nasdaq and Russel-2000 to follow the DJIA.   The real question now is does major [5]-P1-C3 top very quickly over the next few days near the IHS target of 1428 (alt count view) or linger on for several more weeks to even months to the triangle target range of 1441 to 1503 (primary count view).

The primary count is that minor 1 of major [5]-P1-C3 topped today at 1406.64.   The next move should be down in a minor 2 correction to 1388 (38% retrace) to 1383 (50% retrace).  Ultimately the major [5]-P1-C3 target is the triangle target range of 1441 to 1504.

The alternate (blue) count is that minor 3 of major [5]-P1-C3 is unfolding since the minor 2 low of 1368.  The target is 1410, where minor 3=2.62*minor 1.   And the final destination for major [5]-P1-C3 is the IHS target of 1428.  This P1-C3 top of 1428 could occur as early as late next week (May 4th).

There is still a very bearish 2nd alternate (red) count that has the early April high of 1422 as the top of P1-C3.  The initial drop from 1422 to 1357 as minor A of major [4]-P2-C3 and the current rise to 1406 is nothing more that a minor B wave expended flat that just terminate a minute (c) wave today at 1406.   The next move will be a very nasty 106 point drop for minor C of major [A]-P2-C3 down to 1301, where C=1.62*A.  This count would catch the bulls completely off guard, but has low probably until the 1386 pivot and key short-term moving average support area of 1380 is lost.

Support is at the 1386 pivot.  Resistance is at the  recent April high of 1422 and then the 1441 pivot.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

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