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April 23rd, 2012: Update 2 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on April 23, 2012

5:30 pm EST:  There is a 1-week long positive divergence on the $NYMO with respect to the SPX price.   I’m expecting the SPX to move up 30 to 40 points over the next several days per the primary count.   Also, the 60-min MACD is near a bull-cross with positive divergence.

The primary count is that this drop to 1359.79 is part of the minor E of major [4]-P1-C3 wave.  Remaining above the minor C wave low of 1357.38 is not a requirement, as the minor E wave must only hold above the Minor A wave low of 1340.03.  However, in order for this primary count to have the “right look” a hold of this 1363 pivot area (i.e. 1363-7 = 1356) is important.  The close today above the 1363 pivot is bullish.  I have today’s first move to 1366 as wave (1) of minor 1 of major [5]-P1 and the correction to 1361 as wave (2).  Next I’m expecting a wave (3) move up to 1390, where (3)=4.22*(1).  The target area for minor 1 is 1393 to 1402.  And the minimum triangle target for major [5]-P1-C3 is now at 1441 (1359 + 82) with the maximum still at 1504 (1422 + 82).

The alternate (blue) count is working out precisely has labeled where this drop to 1359 today is all or most of the wave-a of (y) of minor C of major [4]-P1-C3.   Recall my target for a-(y) from Friday’s EOD was 1352 to hit today or tomorrow.  From the a-(y) low we should see b-(y) bounce for about 50% retrace towards 1373 and then a c-(y) of major [4] fall to the 1328 (c=1.62*a) to 1345 (c=a) area.

With the long-standing 1158 to 1202 to 1357 light blue up trend-line break today, it does bring up the potential that P1-C3 topped at 1422 on April 2nd, 2012.   In this case the SPX is in a major [A]-P2-C3 fall headed for the 1290 to 1303 area.  Also, note that with the breach of 1363 today, a Head and Shoulders top was triggered targets 1304.  So this fits with this new 2nd alternate (red) count.   And remember that a break of the major [1]-P1-C3 high of 1293 will confirm this count.

Support is at the 1363 pivot then at the 1340 low.  Resistance is at the 1372 and 1386 pivots.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

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