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April 18th, 2012: Update 1 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on April 18, 2012

5:10 pm EST:   It’s decision time for Ms Market.  Tomorrow’s directional move should separate the primary versus alternate count.  A move up to 1399 to as 1410 indicates the primary count is correct and conversely a drop down tomorrow that breaks the 50-day SMA (1378) indicates the alternate count is correct.

Primary count has wave-b of minute (y) of minor D of major [4]-P1-C3 complete at 1383 and a wave-c headed to 1399 (c=0.62*a) or 1410 (c=a) should get under tomorrow.  After minor D completes, minor E should hold above the 1386 pivot area before major [5]-P1-C3 kicks off headed to 1483 to 1504.

The alternate (blue) count has minor B of major [4]-P1-C3 complete at 1393 yesterday. Today’s initial drop to 1383 is wave-a of (w) of minor C and the late afternoon move up to 1390 was wave-b of (w).   I’m expecting a wave-c of (w) drop down to at least 1374 (c=1.62*a) tomorrow and maybe much further.  Ultimately I think minor C of major [4] will reach the 1328 area, where C=A with a minimum target of 1352, where C=0.62*A and a maximum target of near 1300, where C=1.62*A.

Support is at the 1386 pivot and then the 1372 pivot.  Resistance at 1395 to 1405 and then at the recent 1422 high.

SP-500 15-min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=740b784e-fd59-4f46-bbad-a2f22d55ad2c

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

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