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April 11th, 2012: Update 1 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on April 11, 2012

4:40 pm EST:   Well, we saw the SPX rebound to the 1372 pivot that I forecast today.   Since the move was 5-waves up to 1375, it is either the beginning of wave (1) of minor 1 of major [5]-P1-C3 headed towards 1440-1450 per the alternate (blue) count or only wave-a of (4) of minor C of major [4] for the primary count.  Regardless of whehter the major [4] low is in place at 1357 or not, the outcome is the same in that major [5]-P1-C3 will reach a target of betwen 1440 (low end) to 1575 (high end).

Primary count is that the 5-wave 18 point rally today to 1375 was wave-a of minute (4) of minor C of major [4]-P1-C3 and the 3-wave drop to 1367 was wave-b of minute (4).  The next move should be a 11 to 18 point rally to 1378 to 1385 complete wave (4).  From there wave (5) of minor C of major [4] should complete between 1340 and 1357.  Note: a move above 1404.62 for wave (4) will invalidate this primary count and confirm the alternate (blue) count.

The alternate (blue) count is that the 5-wave 18 point rally to 1375 was wave (1) or minor 1 of major [5]-P1-C3.  The 3-wave drop to 1367 was wave (2) and the next move will be a 29 point rally to 1396 for wave (3), where (3)=1.62*(1).   I’m expecting minor 1 to reach the 1400 to 1410 area.   Note: the 60-min MACD when confirmed bull cross from severely oversold conditions and supports this alternate (blue) count that the major [4] low is in place at 1357.  Also the SPX price vs McClellan Oscillator study from last night supports this count that calls for an immediate 75 to 125 point rally for major [5]-P1 to new highs above 1422.  The first target area for major [5] is the 1440 pivot, where [5]=0.5*[1].  There are also higher targets of 1475 to 1492, where [5]=0.62*[1] and 1558 to 1575, where [5]=[1].

Support is at the 1363 pivot and then the 1340 area.  Resistance is at the 1372 pivot and then the 1386 pivot.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

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