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March 23rd, 2012: Update 2 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on March 23, 2012

4:45 pm EST:   The key 1386 pivot support held this morning and the since the pull-back thus far looks like only a 3-wave move, it brings up the very real possibility of a continued aggressive move higher after this 27 point correction (see the new alternate count).  The $NYMO strengthened considerably today from -50 to -27, showing a sign of internal market strength.

The primary count is that wave iii-(3) of minor A of major [4]-P1-C3 completed this morning at 1386.87 and that wave iv-(3) completed this afternoon at 1399.18. The next move should be lowr in a wave v-(3) that is expected to reach the target of 1381, where (3)=1.62*(1).  Note that a move above the wave i-(3) low of 1400.64 invalidate this count and then Iwould then have to look to a double ZZ count for the primary count with the move above 1400.64 being and X-wave in the middle of the two ZZ’s.  Ultimately if this primary count is correction, I’m expecting major [4] correction to end between 1340 and 1360.  The 23% retrace (of major [3]) target is 1355.

I have upgraded the alternate (blue) count to be the very bullish count that this drop to hold the 1386 pivot support is a wave (2) of minor 5 of major [3]-P1-C3. The implication of this is that a very big wave (3) of minor 5 is just beginning that has a target near 1507, where (3)=1.62*(1).   We should expect a big move higher early next week for this alternate count, as wave i-(3) will likely clear the old 1414 high.  And ultimately this alternate count will challenge the 1524 pivot for the completion of major [3]-P1-C3, where [3]=1.62*[1] at 1517.

Support is at the 1386 pivot and then the 1372 pivot.  Resistance is at the previous high of 1414 and then the 1440 pivot.

Have a Great Weekend !!!

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

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