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March 16th, 2012: Update 1 – Afternoon/EOD

Posted by pugsma on March 16, 2012

1:25 pm EST:   A boring March OPEX day with nothing new to report on the wave counts.   Time to go watch some NCAA Basketball this afternoon and evening and enjoy the 80 °F temperatures in Chicago this weekend.

So far the SPX price has hit 1405.88 and it looks like the 1408 target for wave (5) of minor 5 of  major [3]-P1-C3 could be hit into today’s close.   We have the minor 5 = 0.62*minor 1 at 1408, and this is a good point for minor 5 to end since minor 3 was an extended wave, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 at 1378.  From the 1408 area, I’m looking for a major [4]-P1-C3 correction of at least a 23% retracement to 1351 and possibly as low as 1313 for a 38% retracement.  Wave 4′s like to retrace to a least the previous wave 4 area and this case minor 4 of major [4] is at 1340, so fits well with the 23% to 38% retracement targets.   The target for minor A of major [4]-P1-C3 is the 1372 to 1363 pivot area.   Note: break below the 1374.52 level will confirm this primary count that the major [4] correction is underway.

The alternate (blue) count is a more bullish near-term variant of the primary count, where the peak at 1399.54 was the end of wave iii-(3) of minor 5 of major [3]-P1-C3 and the drop to 1390 was iv-(3), followed by a wave v-(3) headed to 1408.  Once v-(5) is complete, we’ll have a wave (4) of minor 5 of major [3] down to hold the 1386 pivot and then another nice rally from wave (5) of minor 5 of major [3] up to the 1426 target, where [3]=1.23*[1].

Support is at the 1386 pivot and then the 1372 and 1363 pivots.   The next major resistance is at  the 1440 pivot.

Enjoy your weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart (1:21 pm):

SP-500 60-min chart (1:01 pm):

SP-500 4-hr chart (1:08 pm):

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