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March 7th, 2012: Update 2 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on March 7, 2012

4:40 pm EST:  We received some bullish TA outcomes today with the 60-min MACD going to a confirmed bull-cross from a deeply oversold area.  This indicator alone as been good for rallies of 132 and 78 points in the past two months.  And $NYMO rebounded very strong today to close at -50.  This shows a lot of internal strength in the market in move up off the deeply oversold level of -87 yesterday.   The stage is set for the alternate (blue) count to play out where the major [4]-P1-C3 low is place.  A decisive break of the 1363 pivot is required to confirm.   A failure at the 1363 pivot will likely lead to the primary count playing-out with one more 38 point drop to a new low slightly below 1340 to complete major [4]-P1-C3.  The next two trading days will hold the key.

Primary count is that wave (a) of minor B of major [4]-P1-C3 was put today at 1354.85.  1354 is the 38% retrace point for Minor B and a case could be made that minor B ended today at 1355.   However that said I don’t think Minor B has ended and I’m looking for a wave (b) of minor B retrace of 50% to about 1347 and then (c) of minor B move up of 10 to 15 points to 1359 to 1363.  Note 1359 is the 62% retrace point and 1363 is the (c)=(a) target and key pivot point.  Once minor B completes, I’m looking for a minor C of major [4] drop to 1321, were C=A.   For major [4], the 23% retrace of major [3] is at 1328.

The alternate (blue) count is that major [4] ended yesterday at 1340.03 and now wave (1) of minor 1 of major [5]-P-C reached 1355 today.  I’m looking for wave (2) pull-back of 50% to 1347 and then a wave (3) move up to 1371, where (3)=1.62*(1).  I think minor 1 of major [5] will reach approxiately the 1386 pivot and Ultimately major [5]-P1-C3 targets are 1449 where [5]=0.5*[1], 1477 where [5]=0.62*[1] and 1562 where [5]=[1].

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD:

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

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