March 1st, 2012: Update 2 – EOD
Posted by pugsma on March 1, 2012
5:00 pm EST: The last 8 to 10 trading days have created a lot of choppy overlapping waves in the SP-500 price with a slight upward bias, which is typical of an Ending Diagonal (ED) pattern that occurs after a long-winded bull run. The $NYMO bounced from -34 to -18 today, but is still extremely weak compared to the SP-500 price. The music is slowing and the SP-500 price should soon collapse to test the 1350 and then 1340 support zones. When it does collapse, it should do so in a very rapid and violent major [4]-P1-C3 wave correction of 40 to 50 points.
For the primary count it looks like wave (2) of minor A of major [4]-P1-C3 had some unfinished business and it back-test the top of the ED wedge below the over-throw level of 1378.04. The primary count should drop towards the 1355 level in a wave (3) of minor A, where (3)=1.62*(1). There is however a variant of the primary to be aware of and that is that yesterday’s late day low at 1364 was a wave iv of the wave (5) of the ED and now one more a-b-c move higher is underway to take out the 1378.02 high and test the 1386 pivot to complete minor 5 of major [3]-P1-C3. Note the maximum level for the primary count variant of the ED is 1389, so that wave v < iii < i. With the close above the 1372 pivot today it makes this primary count variant more likely.
The alternate (blue) count remains less likely, unless a decisive break above the 1386 pivot ensues shortly for wave iii-(3) of minor 5 of major [3]-P-C3.
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):
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