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February 29th, 2012: Update 1 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on February 29, 2012

5:30 pm EST:  The SP-500 put in a bearish “outside reversal” daily candle and the McClellan Oscillator ($NYMO) fellow well be the critical -20 level, as I predicted it would based on last evenings $NYMO vs SP-500 study going back 2 -years.

Primary count is that major [3]-P1-C3 ended today at 1378.04 and the major [4]-P1-C3 correction has begun.  The 5-wave move lower to 1364.72 was wave (1) of minor A of major [4]-P1-C3.  There was then an a 3-wave correction upward for wave (2) to 1373.24, before wave (3) down began late today.  The target for wave (3) of minor A is at 1352, where (3)=1.62*(1).   Minor A should reach the 1340 area before we see a minor B bounce and finally a minor C of major [4] completion near 1328 for 23% retrace of major [3].

The alternate (blue) count is that seeing a series of  i-ii, 1-2 waves to begin the wave (3) of major [3]-P1-C3 move up toward 1396, where (3)=1.62*(1).  However, this count is becoming increasing unlikely now and a break of 1354.94 and then 1352.28 would officially end this alternate count.

Support is at the 1363 pivot then the 1352 area.  Resistance is at the 1372 pivot and then the 1386 pivot.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

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