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February 28th, 2012: Update 1 – Afternoon/EOD

Posted by pugsma on February 28, 2012

3:10 pm EST:  The McClellan Oscillator ($NYMO) continues to be trapped below the zero line and is sporting a large negative divergence with past 2-month SPX price rise.  The $NYMO weakness, the SPX price rise and the MACD and RSI indicators are in a very similar set-up to the May 2010 market top and subsequent “Flash Crash”.   See the chart below:

SP-500 vs $NYMO with Indicators (2-28-12):

Primary count is still the Ending Diagonal for wave (5) of minor 5 of major [3]-P1-C3.  It either complete at 1373.04 today or still needs one more small push up to the 1376-1379 area.   In the later case, we should see a wave iv-(5) that holds the 1363 pivot before the final push up to 1376-1379.  However, in either case the 40 to 50 pont correction down toward the 1315 pivot area for major [4]-P1-C3 is about to get underway.  A break below 1352.28 confirms that the major [4]-P1-C3 correction is underway.

The alternate (blue count) is that the SP-500 is setting up a (1)-(2), i-ii wave and getting ready for a iii-(3) of minor 5 of major [3]-P1-C3 break-out to a level above the 1386 pivot.  Ultimately, wave (5) of minor 5 of major [3]-P1-C3 should top at 1406 to 1426 per this alternate count.

Support is at the 1363 pivot and resistance at the 1372 and 1386 pivots.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

 SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):


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