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February 14th, 2012: Update 2 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on February 14, 2012

9:25 pm EST:  Below is a weekly chart of the SP-500 ES Futures.  It’s very clear in looking at this chart why the market is hesitating at this area of 1340 to 1360.  A break upward out of this resistance area would move the SP-500 into the upper third of the bull channel not seen since July 2011 and lead towards a much larger rise in the SP-500 price.

SP-500 Weekly Chart (EOD, 2-14-12):

5:35 pm EST:  Primary count is that wave ii-(5) of minor 5 of major [3]-P1-C3 ended late this afternoon at 1340.83.  Wave iii-(5) is now underway headed for a target of 1367, where iii=1.62*i.  And I’m expecting wave v-(5) to reach the 1371 target, were (5)=1.62*(1).   There is a lower target at 1358, where (5)=(1) and this would fit if wave (5) played out as an ending diagonal triangle instead of a standard impulse count.  Note: Breaking the wave (4) low of 1337.35 will confirm a trend change and usher in the alternate (blue) count.

The alternate (blue) count is that wave i-(3) of minor A  of major [4]-P1-C3 ended late his afternoon at 1340.05 and then we had a fast Zig-Zag up to the 1350 area into the close for wave ii-(3).  Note: wave ii-(3) can not exceed 1353.35 over this alternate count is invalid and the primary count is confirmed.  From this 1350 area for wave ii-(3), we should see a very rapid drop tomorrow down to the 1329 area, where iii=1.62*i.  Ultimately, I have minor A targeting the 1321 area.

Support is at 1340 and then 1337.   Resistance is at the 1354 high and then the 1363 and 1372 pivots.

Have a Happy Valentine’s Evening !!!


SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

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