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February 8th, 2012: Update 2 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on February 8, 2012

6:00 pm EST:  Another new SPX high today at 1351.  The $NYMO weakened again today to 26.88 with a small change of -2.72 points.  This significant $NYMO weakening and negative divergence the past 3 days with the new SPX price highs each day should indicate that the SPX is about to fall by 40 to 60 points in a major [4]-P1-C3 correction down the 1303 pivot.  This 40 to 60 point correction is very likely coming and it’s just a matter whether it began today per the alternate (blue) count or will begin in a few days per the primary count.   The  recent $NYMO behavior is screaming out a warning sign to the bulls here.   $NYMO and SPX is set-up very similar to February 2011 topping area near SPX 1340/1350, that led to an initial break lower down to 1300 at the end of February.

The primary count is that wave (3) of minor 5 of major [3]-P1-C3 concluded today at 1351.  Wave (4) began today and could be complete at a 23% retrace of 1342, or this could just be the a-(4) wave of a 3-3-5 flat, with the b-(c) wav back up test 1351/1353 before the c-(4) wave will re-test the 1342/1334 area tomorrow.   From the wave (4) of 1342, I’m expecting wave (5) of minor 5 reach the 1363 pivot, where (5)=(1) or 1376, where (5)=1.62*(1).  This primary count could drag on a few more days into OPEX week.

The alternate (blue) count is that wave (5) of minor 5 of major [3]-P1-C3 peaked early today at 1351.00   And the first wave (1) of minor A of major [4] ended today at 1342. From there wave (2) of minor A re-tested the 1351 high late this afternoon, and wave (3) of minor A is headed for 1327, where (3)=1.62*(1) tomorrow.  I have minor A ending near 1321 and then a minor B bounce up to 1335/1340 before minor C of major [4] reach the 1303 pivot.  This could end major [4] or major [4] could turn in a triangle that bounce between the 1303 pivot and the major [3] high for over a month before major [5]-P1-C3 reach the 1400-1440 target area.

Support is at the 1342 area, then the 1330 area.  Resistance is at th 1363 pivot and then the 1372 pivot.

 

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

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