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February 3rd, 2012: Update 1 – Mid-day

Posted by pugsma on February 3, 2012

3:30 pm EST:  Here is the SP-500 Weekly Candles Chart showing that the RSI(14) and MACD have plently of room to run higher as the this bull wave towards 1400-1440 continues.  There is potential weekly “exhaustion bar” here at 1344 or mabye next week at 1376 to end major [3]-P1-C3 that is similar to what we saw in Nov 2010 during the end of major [3]-P3-C1.

SP-500 Weekly Candles Chart (3:30 pm):

1:15 pm EST:  The SP-500 price made a decisive and sustained break-out above 1333 today.  This confirms the 1st alternate (blue) count scenario as mentioned in yesterday’s EOD of report.

The primary count is that wave iii-(3) of minor 5 of major [3]-P1-C3 is underway from the wave ii-(3) low of 1321 yesterday.  The target for iii-(3) is at 1359, where iii = 1.62*i.  So far we have hit 1344.59.  Ultimately I have wave v-(3) reaching the 1363 pivot area and wave (5) of minor 5 of major [3] reaching the 1372 pivot area.  The large Inverse Head and Shoulders (IHS) with neckline at 1267 has a target of 1376.  I have had 1376 listed at the target for major [3] for well over 2 months. 

The alternate (blue) count variant to the primary count is that wave (5) of minor 5 of major [3]-P1-C3 is just about to finish up at either 1343, where (5)=(1) or at 1355, where (5)=1.62*(1).  The 1355 taret is a little more likely since wave (3) was just slightly longer than wave (1), meaning wave (5) will likely extend to the 1.62*(1) target of 1355.  From this 1343 to 1355 area to end major [3], wave major [4] should correct at least to a 23% retrace target of 1300/1309 into mid-to-late February.  And from there major [5]-P1-C3 should target the 1400/1400 area in March-April.

SP-500 15-min chart (1:03 pm):

SP-500 60-min chart (12:55 pm):

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