February 2nd, 2012: Update 1 – EOD
Posted by pugsma on February 2, 2012
4:55 pm EST: Boring, indecisive day today, as I suspected. The SPX price did correct down to 1322, which is 38% retrace and fits well with a wave ii-(3) of minor 5 for the 1st Alternate (blue) count, so it has the edge right now. However, we need a decisive sustained break higher above 1333 to confirm this 1st Alternate count. And drop below the 1315 pivot will bring the primary count triangle and the 2nd Alternate (red) count double ZZ into play. All three count options from yesterday are still in play:
- Primary count is a that today’s move to 1330 was a (b) wave of the triangle with waves (c)-(d)-(e) yet to come in order to complete minor 4 of major [3]-P1-C3. Wave (c) should be headed down to about 1308. Those three wave of (c)-(d)-(e) should remain inside the 1300 to 1330 boundary of the minor 4 triangle before minor 5 blasts off towards the 1376 target.
- 1st Alternate (blue) count is that today’s move to 1330 ended wave i-(3) of minor 5. Wave ii-(3) of minor 5 should hold above the 1315 pivot with targets of a 50% retrace to 1318 or a 62% retrace to 1315. The SPX price did hot 1322 today, so that could be it for wave ii-(3). From there wave iii-(3) of minor 5 should head for the 1363 pivot. Ultimately minor 5 should reach the 1376 target.
- 2nd Alternate (red) count is either a double ZZ or flat for minor 4 with wave (x) or (b) ending at 1330 today and now a 33 drop down to 1297 is underway. Again once complete minor 5 will head for the 1376 target.
Support is at the 1315 pivot, then 13o3 pivot. Resistance is at the 1333 previous high.
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
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