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January 31st, 2012: Update 1 – Morning/Afternoon

Posted by pugsma on January 31, 2012

2:35 pm EST:  We have three really distinct possible minor 4 wave counts in-play right now:

  • Primary count is a minor 4 triangle that will rattle around between 1303 and 1322 a couple more days before blasting off higher.
  • 1st Alternate (blue) count is that minor 4 ended at 1300 as a simple Zig-Zag.  Waves (1)-(2) of minor 5 have been put in place and the SP-500 is now ready to blast off towards 1345, where (3)=1.62*(1).
  • 2nd Alternate (red) count is that minor 4 is setting up a more bearish double Zig-Zag with the 1st ZZ for wave (w) ending at 1300, an (x) wave up to 1321 and now a (y) now to a target of 1288, where (y)=(w) is underway.  There is also a 38% retrace target of 1283 that fits with this 2nd alternate count.

SP-500 15-min chart (2:25 pm):

10:50 am EST:  With the move above 1320.06, the primary count needs to be changed.  Right now the best modification is a minor 4 triangle with the move down to 1300.49 as wave (a) of minor 4, the move up to 1321.41 today as wave (b) of minor 4, and now a wave (c) down toward the 1303 to 1308 area.  From there a wave (d) to rest the 1315-1318 and finally a wave (e) of minor to end around 1308.  This count will allow minor 4 to buy some time.  A drop be 1300.49 will invalidate this triangle count and mean something more bearish is unfolding, like a double ZZ down to the original 1283-1286 target area for minor 4.

The alternate (blue) count is unchanged, expect I labeled the move up to 1321.41 as the end of wave (1) of minor 5 and now wave (2) is underway with target area of a 62% retrace to 1308.

SP-500 5-min chart (10:41 am):

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