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January 30th, 2012: Update 2 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on January 30, 2012

5:40 pm EST:  A very interesting day. The gap down and drop to 1300 confirmed the primary  count from Friday that forecast wave i-(c) of minor 4 was headed towards the 1303 pivot area today.  Sure enough that is precisely what transpired today.  Now the interesting thing later today is that wave ii-(c) has retraced past the typical 50%-62% retracement area and hit the 78% retracement of 1314.   This brings up the very real possibility that wave minor 4 ended early this morning at 1300, near the wave (c)=(a) target of 1299.  This becomes the new alternate count and move above 1320.06 will confirm it.

Primary count is that wave ii-(c) or minor 4 of major [3]-P1-C3 ended late today at 1314.   I’m now looking for wave iii-(c) to drop toward the 1291 pivot area, where iii=1.23*i at 1289.   Finally I think wave v-(c) of minor 3 will end near 1283-1286, where (c)=1.62*(a) and the 38% retrace target.  Note, that a move back above 1320.06 for ii-(c) will eliminate this primary count and confirm the alternate count.

The alternate (blue) count is that minor 4 ended today as a simple (a)-(b)-(c) Zig-Zag with (c)=(a) at 1300.   From 1300 I’m looking for wave (1) of minor 5 of major [3]-P1-C3 to reach the 1333 area.   It looks like waves i-ii of (1) were put in today and wave iii-(1) is headed towards 1327, where iii=2.62*i.

Note for both the primary and alternate counts, that the minor 5 of major [3]-P1-C3 is headed much high toward the IHS target of 1376.

Support is at the 1303 pivot then the 1291 pivot.  Resistance is at the 1315 pivot, and then the previous high of 1333.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

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