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January 6th, 2012: Update 2 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on January 6, 2012

5:20 pm EST:  Nothing new to report after the close today.  All 3 count options are still possible.   We’ll find out early next week whether this was just consolidation before push higher (primary count) or if Ms Market is putting in short-term top (1st alternate) or intermediate term top (2nd alternate).   The VIX has fallen hard this past week (down -11.8%).   This VIX behavior is similar to what transpired with the VIX in early to mid-December 2011, before the next big push higher off the 1202 low.  However, in the 1st alternate count ledger for an immediate pull-back all of the short time frame MACD’s (5-min, 15-min, and 60-min) are on bear cross with negative divergence on the 60-min MACD.  And the $NYMO continues to show negative divergence wrt SP-500 price from the Dec 23rt to Jan 3rd time frame.

The primary count is in a wave 2 of v-(3) of minor 3-[3]-P1-C3, which needs to hold above the wave iv-(3) low of 1265.26 from yesterday.  The first target for wave 3 of v-(3) is at 1302, where 3=1.62*1.

The 1st alternate (blue) count is trying to finish up wave 5 of v-(1) of minor 3-[3]-P1-C3 at level above 1284.62 and below 1288.50.    From there wave (2) should pull back to the 1257/1245 pivot area over the next few days.

The 2nd alternate (red) count is trying to finish up wave 5 of v-(c) of minor B-[2]-P1-C3 above 1284.62 and below 1288.50.  From there, minor C should drop in a 5-wave count down to the 1158 area over the next month.

Note that for both the 1st and 2nd alternate counts, this last 5th wave up could truncate below 1284.62.  We also need to see a break of the 1265.26 to confirm these alternate counts.

Support is at the 1257 pivot and then the 1245 pivot. Resistance is at the 1291 pivot and then 1303/1315 pivots.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

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