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January 5th, 2011: Update 2 – Afternoon/EOD

Posted by pugsma on January 5, 2012

6:35 pm EST:  I looked over the counts more closely after the close tonight and we really need to watch the key 1288.50 level tomorrow.  A 5th wave truncation below 1284.62 would very bearish and help to confirm at top for both the 1st and 2nd alternate counts.  Above 1288.50, both the 1st and 2nd alternate counts go invalid as wave iii  become the shortest wave (blue and red  labels on 15-min chart) .   So a move above 1288.50 tomorrow could be extremely bullish in that is further confirms the primary count.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

2:15 pm EST:   OK this afternoon post will also serve as my EOD post, as I have other work to attend to later today.

Primary count is that wave iv-(3) of minor 3 of major [3]-P1-C3 ended this morning at 1265.26.  Wave v-(3) up has begun with an initial price target of 1308 to 1315, where v=1.62*iii and (3)=(1).   Notice the nice new channel drawn on the 15-min chart that supports this move up to 1315 for wave (3).

1st Alternate (blue) count is that v-(1) of minor 3 of major [3]-P1-C3  is extending with a price target near the 1291 pivot resistance.  From this 1291/1293 area a wave (2) correction should begin and test the 1245/1257 pivot area.

2nd Alternate (red) count is that wave v-(c) of minor B of major [2]-P1-C3 is finishing up near the 1291 pivot resistance.  From there we should see as significant minor C correction down to re-test the 1158 low should occur.  This 2nd alternate count is very bearish in the intermediate term as it’s looking for a A-B-C, 3-3-5 flat to occur for major [2]-P1-C3, which will re-set the overly bullish nature of the market here in early 2012 before push much higher into the middle fo 2012.

Support is at the 1257 pivot and 1245 pivot.   Resistance is at the 1291/1303/1303 pivot cluster.

SP-500 15-min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=56ce7771-7c4e-43f6-974d-1f992e44a41b

SP-500 15-min chart (2:00 pm):

SP-500 60-min chart (2:00 pm):

SP-500 4-hr chart (2:25 pm):


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