December 21st, 2011: Update 2 – EOD
Posted by pugsma on December 21, 2011
4:35 pm EST: Today saw the wave iv-(1) of minor 3 of major [3]-P1-C3 low form at 1229.51, precisely in the target range of 1228 to 1234 forecast in yesterday’s EOD report. Then late today the wave v-(1) rally began that has reached 1245.09 thus far and put in a new high above iii-(1). It’s possible that 1245.09 is the end of wave (1) and now the SP-500 will begin a wave (2) correction down to the a target range from 1229 (38%) to 1218 (62%). It’s also possible that wave v-(1) could extend early tomorrow morning to a target of 1253, where iii=0.62*i. There is pivot resistance at 1245 and 1257 and I doubt this wave v-(1) will clear the 1257 pivot. If wave (1) reaches the 1257 pivot target, the wave (2) retrace targets range from 1236 (38%) to 1223 (62%). Wave (2) should not break below the 1219 pivot and close below there or else we have something entire more bearish playing out, as shown in the alternate (blue) count on the 60-min chart. This is alternate count scenario is that the minor B wave of a 2nd ZZ for major [2] just ended at 1245 today and the SP-500 should drop down in a minor C wave toward a re-test of the late November 1158 low. This alternate count would be a very bearish scenario over the next 2 to 3 weeks.
Support is at the 1229 pivot and 1219 pivot. Resistance is at the 1245 pivot and 1257 pivot.
SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):
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