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December 19th, 2011: Update 2 – EOD

Posted by pugsma on December 19, 2011

4:55 pm EST:    Primary count is that we have 5-waves down to 1202.37 to complete wave v of (c) of (y) of the minor 2 double Zig-Zag.   The 62% retrace of minor 1 is at 1199, so this fits with a typical wave 2 retrace target.   We have a positive divergence on the $NYMO oscillator at -44 with the new closing SPX low of 1205.  I’m expecting a move higher into the end of year toward the 1257 pivot for wave (1) of minor 3 or major [3]-P1-C3.   We to first see move back above 1215.20 and then 1237.17 to confirm this primary count.

The new alternate (blue) count is shown on only the 60-min and 4-hr charts for now.  It is that major [2]-P1-C3 did not complete at 1158 in late November and is in the process of a second Zig-Zag lower to a 1136 pivot target.   The minor A wave of the 2nd ZZ is complete or nearing completion here at 1200 to the 1187 pivot.   And next there should be a minor B wave rally that fails near the 50-day SMA at 1230 to the 1245 pivot.  From there a minor C wave down to make a new low below 1158 near the 1136 pivot and lower while channel line (see on the 4-hr chart).

Support is at the 1187 pivot and then the 1177 pivot.  Resistance is at the 1219 and 1229 pivots.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

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