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December 12th, 2011: Update 1 – Mid-day/EOD

Posted by pugsma on December 12, 2011

4:50 pm EST: Here is the updated 5-min chart showing a possible 5-wave count to complete (c) of minor 2 of major [3]-P1-C3.  If this primary count is correct, there should be a big move higher for minor 3 of major [3] beginning soon.   The alternate count is that 1227.25 is just the end of wave iii-(c) of minor 2 and there will be a lower low down below 1227.15.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

4:20 pm EST:  Here are the updated 15-min and 60-min chart after the close.    We have a first canidate for the end of wave (c) of minor 2 at 1227.25 today, which is right at the 38% retrace target of 1226.   We’ll see if holds up, as there are two deeper retrace targets at 1213 (50%) and 1199 (62%).   The SP-500 will have to move back above the 1257 pivot and break the 1267 IHS neck-line to turn positve again.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

2:25 pm EST:   Here is the SP-500 daily candle chart with key moving averages.  If the SP-500 falls back below the 50-day SMA (1222) and a bear cross of the 13-day EAM (1236) below the 34-day EMA (1228) occurs, then things could get really ugly for the SP-500 price real fast (see late July 2011).   Conversely, if this back test of the 50-day SMA holds, the SP-500 could explode higher (see late August 2010).  The market is a tipping point here.

SP-500 Daily Candles (12-12-11):

1:30 pm EST:   I decided to simply the count, making 1267.06 the end of minor 1 of major [3]-P1-C3 on Wednesday Dec 7th.  This makes the move down for minor 2 off 1267.06 a simple (a)-(b)-(c).   The wave (a) was the drop to 1231.47 on Thursday Dec 8th.  The wave (b) ws the move up to 1258.25 on Friday Dec 9th.  And now the wave (c) down today.  The targets for wave (c) of minor 2 are as follows:

  • (c)=(a) => 1222, also the 38% retrace of minor 1 at 1226.
  • (c)=1.23*(a) => 1214, also the 50% retrace of minor 1 at 1213.
  • (c)=1.62*(a) => 1199, also the 62% retrace of minor 1 at 1199.

There is support at the 1229 pivot, the 1219 pivot and 50-day SMA at 1222.  There is resistance at the 1245 and 1257 pivots.

SP-500 15-min chart (1:18 pm EST):

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