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December 9th, 2011: Update 1 – Mid-day/EOD

Posted by pugsma on December 9, 2011

2:55 pm EST:  Nothing new to report here heading into the weekend.

For the primary count wave (1) of minor 3 reach my first target of the 1257 pivot.  The next higher target is 1267 if it extends.   Looking for a wave (2) correction to hold the 1245 pivot support and that won’t breach the minor 2 low of 1231.47 before wave (3) of minor 3 kicks-off headed to the 1315 pivot.  Notice on the 15-min chart the small IHS with head at 1231, neckline at 1267, and target of 1303.   This IHS will need wave (1) to reach 1267 on Monday, then pull-back to 1245/1249 on Tuesday to form the right shoulder, before heading higher in wave (3).

For the alternate count the (x) wave of the 2nd ZZ should be complete at the 1257 pivot.  And now a wave (a) down of the second ZZ should head below 1231.47.

 

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

11:35 am EST:  With the breach above the wave i-(c) low of 1251.45 today, the primary count low of 1231.47 for wave v-(c) of minor 2 is confirmed and minor 3 up has begun.

Primary count is that wave (1) of minor 3 is underway.  The initial target is the 1257 pivot and then the 1267 minor 1 high.  From there we should see a wave (2) of minor 3 correction that holds above the 1245 pivot area and then a big move up in wave (3) of minor 3 toward the 1315 pivot area.   Don’t forget that a break above the 1267 neckline of the large IHS on the 60-min chart will target the 1376 area.

The alternate (blue) count is that minor 2 down has more work to be done.  Minor 2 will unfold as a double Zig-Zag with 1231.47 being the first Zig-Zag low for wave (w) of minor 2.   This move up to the 1257 pivot area is an (x) wave to be followed by a second Zig-Zag down to a first target of 1213 or a 50% retrace of minor 1.   And there is a second target for minor 2 at the 62% retrace of 1199.   A move above the previous high of 1267.06 will invalidate this count.

Support is at the 1245 pivot and resistance at the 1257 pivot and the 200-day SMA of 1264.

SP-500 15-min chart real-time link: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=1ea30a97-c83c-44ed-964c-dabe4382817a

SP-500 15-min chart (11:22 am):

SP-500 60-min chart (11:42 am):

 

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