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December 7th, 2011: Update 1 – Morning

Posted by pugsma on December 7, 2011

1:10 pm EST:  Here is the updated 5-min chart.   At the end of today, the SP-500 should be positioned for a iii-(3) of minor 3 move up to 1300+ (primary) or a iii-(c) of minor 2 move down to 1219/1229 (alternate).

SP-500 5-min chart (1:03 pm EST):

11:30 am EST:  When the perma-bears start talking doom and gloom, as they have since the March of 2009 generation al low, it’s a good idea to keep the “Big Picture” weekly charts in mind.   If the world is really coming to an end and the equity markets are headed to zero, how come both the Nasdaq-100 and the Russel-2000 made new highs in 2011 that were higher than October 2007?  And the Russel-2000 new high in May of 2011 is an all-time high !!!   Not exactly end of the world type behavior by the equity markets.

Right now in December of 2011, the Nasdaq-100 technology stocks are back very near their July 2011 highs and thus are leading the markets.  The Nasdaq-100 is not weighted down by the financials like the SP-500 is.   The SP-500 is the weakest of the 4 major US indices and has the most catching up to do over time.

Nasdaq-100, Russel-2000, DJIA-30 and SP-500 Weekly Chart Comparison (12-7-11):

10:30 am EST:  Someone asked about the “Golden Cross” on QQQ.  The “Golden Cross” is when the 50-day SMA moves above the 200-day SMA on a daily chart.  This was achieved on Monday, Dec 5th for the QQQ.  The last “Golden Cross” on the QQQ was in Sept 2010.

QQQ Daily Candles (12-7-11):

10:15 am EST:  Here is the updated 15-min chart.   For the primary count we have put in waves (1)-(2) of minor 3 off the minor 2 low of 1243.35.   As long as 1243.35 holds, then wave (3) of minor 3 should move higher with the upper half to the light blue upward channel.   If 1243.35 fails, then we have a double top pattern that measure to 1226 (38% retrace) for the alternate (blue) count for minor 2.  Thus minor 2 would drop to the bottom of the light blue upward channel.

SP-500 15-min chart (10:05 am):

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